Great piece, thesis makes a lot of sense…do you think the top is in? How long until the bottom assuming we revisit 2017 levels? Minor quibble; I just can’t square your call for a recession with continuing to hold cyclical growth stocks like Tesla. IMHO, stocks like that are still expensive in light of downward earnings revisions and stand to get cut in half (at a minimum) along with the AI names.
Hey Dan, I appreciate you reading. I do believe that we are *most* likely to go back to the 200 week moving average, which will set up for a cyclical, buyable, low.
Cyclical growth stocks are interest rate sensitive… I can probably publish a news letter on this topic to explain the rationale more, would that be helpful?
Absolutely fascinating read Dillon. It always blows my mind the level of detail you go into with your writing. Extremely impressive and very very informative. I’ve read your work now for several years and have you to thank for the forewarning of the last market capitulation but also instilling confidence in me to double down on those disruptive best of breed companies that will undoubtedly help shape the future. Whatever uncertainty lies ahead, I’m no longer fearful as I now see opportunity as I’m here for a long long time. Thank you my friend. Appreciate you.
Thank you for taking the time to read my friend, it means a lot. Every now and then I have to “get it out” and explain a thesis for why I think a particular cycle will occur next. This one is of particular importance as I think the odds of an unemployment recession are more elevated today than at any point the past 3 years. I feel this way especially after seeing the latest JOLTS data.
Great piece, thesis makes a lot of sense…do you think the top is in? How long until the bottom assuming we revisit 2017 levels? Minor quibble; I just can’t square your call for a recession with continuing to hold cyclical growth stocks like Tesla. IMHO, stocks like that are still expensive in light of downward earnings revisions and stand to get cut in half (at a minimum) along with the AI names.
Hey Dan, I appreciate you reading. I do believe that we are *most* likely to go back to the 200 week moving average, which will set up for a cyclical, buyable, low.
Cyclical growth stocks are interest rate sensitive… I can probably publish a news letter on this topic to explain the rationale more, would that be helpful?
Absolutely fascinating read Dillon. It always blows my mind the level of detail you go into with your writing. Extremely impressive and very very informative. I’ve read your work now for several years and have you to thank for the forewarning of the last market capitulation but also instilling confidence in me to double down on those disruptive best of breed companies that will undoubtedly help shape the future. Whatever uncertainty lies ahead, I’m no longer fearful as I now see opportunity as I’m here for a long long time. Thank you my friend. Appreciate you.
Thank you for taking the time to read my friend, it means a lot. Every now and then I have to “get it out” and explain a thesis for why I think a particular cycle will occur next. This one is of particular importance as I think the odds of an unemployment recession are more elevated today than at any point the past 3 years. I feel this way especially after seeing the latest JOLTS data.